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How Does Psychology Affect Your Trading?

1/26/2015

1 Comment

 
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From The Desk of Novice_Trader_Cindy

Psychology was my subject of interest when I was in college.  After earning a BS in Employee Assistance Counseling, I went on to Human Resources Management positions where I found myself constantly using psychology to interpret and understand the true emotions employees were experiencing in a given situation.  I NEVER even thought that psychology would apply to the stock market as well.  I thought it was just a game of statistics and economics.  Was I ever wrong!

Receiving a 400+ page book on trading from my Dad (Trader_Joe) for Christmas surely opened my eyes!  I was SO excited to dig in.  What did I learn in the first sixty pages of the book?  Psychology is tightly intertwined in the markets.  You may be like me and skeptical at first, so let me explain a few of the concepts in the book. 

Idea #1:  Wanting to be right, is wrong.  We all have the innate desire to be right.  Who wants to admit they’re wrong, after all?  It’s in our nature to fight to prove we’re right.  Think about the last fight with your spouse.  Did you hold your position and fight to prove you were right?  How’d it turn out?  Now equate that to a recent losing trade you had.  Did you stay in the trade, even though your trading plan told you to get out?  Were you SURE it was going to become a winning position and you were going to stick with it and prove your strategy was right?  That’s what the experienced traders are counting on!  They want you to stay in your losing position trying to prove you were right.  Meanwhile, all your losses become another trader’s gains.

Idea #2:  Focusing on the potential results is faulty thinking.  If a trader is focused on the potential result, or the potential money gain, she will see many opportunities that really aren’t there.  It is important to always focus on the set up.  If you don’t have the desired set up, chances are you won’t have the desired outcome.  Patience is essential in both learning what setups work best and also waiting for those setups to occur.

Idea #3:  Market Violence is driven by fear.  This idea actually came from another source but I felt it was an important part of the psychology of trading.  Fear drives market violence.  There are two types of fear; one the fear of losing money and second, the fear of missing out.  Again you have two sets of traders, in the same trade, on opposite sides.  One will win and one will lose, but both made decisions based on fear. 

Psychology does indeed play an important part in the trading world, and on me as a new trader.  Knowing this, I can now be aware of my emotions to make sure they are in check and are not setting me up for failure! 

Happy Returns,

Novice_Trader_Cindy


1 Comment

Want To Learn From A Hedge Fund Manager?

1/21/2015

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ANNOUNCEMENT:  The February 10th, 2015 Computerized Investing and Mechanical Investing (CIMI) Group of Silicon Valley meeting at the Saratoga Library will have a special format and a special speaker featuring Ed Walczak.  Ed is the Senior Portfolio Manager at Catalyst Mutual Funds.  He runs the  Managed Futures Mutual Fund which is the successor entity to the private placement hedge fund vehicle he founded in 2005.

To give you a flavor of what Ed does...  "The Fund constructs favorable equity market risk return profiles using derivative instruments based on S&P 500 Futures Contracts."  Ed is primarily an options trader. He uses SP500 futures options spreads and sells premium.  Ed has $537.3 million under management.

You will benefit by attending this CIMI meeting in at least two ways:
  • You will learn how and why hedge fund strategies are being ported to mutual fund formats, and
  • You will understand how a professional manager uses option spreads and sells premium to generate an impressive performance track record over 10 years.
 
Meeting info below: Date/Time: February 10th, 6:30 - 8:30 PM
Location: Saratoga Library Community Room, 13650 Saratoga Avenue, Saratoga, CA 95070 map: 
Getting There | Santa Clara County Library District

More details are available here:  [NEED DETAILS]

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Tracking A Stock Like Daisy

1/12/2015

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Tracking the Right Buy

Have you ever watched a dog track a smell?  I’ve seen dogs sniff smells all the time but never track.  That changed with our puppy, Daisy.  She’s a seven month old shepherd/lab mix.  Just to set the scene, we recently purchased a home sitting on 10 acres.   There are pastures on both sides of the house, as well as in the back.  The back pasture is bordered by woods, hundreds of acres of woods.  



One day my husband went into the woods to hunt.  David asked me to keep the dogs inside because he didn’t want them following and disturbing the deer.  When I opened the door to go out, Daisy managed to sneak past me like a bolt of lightning barely seen.  I called her, she continued running until she got to the back of the house.  Daisy stopped and then began sniffing.  Not just sniffing I soon realized, but tracking.  She had picked up a scent and she was going to track it down.  I thought to myself there’s no way she could be tracking David!  I watched as Daisy continued to smell and move, retracing her steps to the last spot if the new path was a dead end.  Daisy worked meticulously and with certainty of her goal.  She disappeared into the woods and I stayed watching for her return.  When she reappeared, Daisy was leading the way for David.  David, who was sitting in a tree stand, when he heard something coming towards him that sounded like a herd of cattle.  It was Daisy at full speed and she stopped right at the bottom of his tree!  She looked around seemingly confused that the trail ended but David wasn’t there.  Daisy checked her tracking again and came to the same conclusion that she was in the right place and sat down.  David sitting in the tree, called her name and she looked up, seemingly happy that her mission ended successfully!

This made me think about trading.  How do I know if I’m tracking the right stock?  Then I realized the answer is the same as Daisy’s.  Test your assumptions and if they aren’t correct, move on to another stock, maybe putting the first one on a watch list.  How do I test an assumption?   

Like Daisy, we too track.   We track stocks, ETFs, futures or options.  But instead of our noses, we use our tools.  There are three particular studies that I’ve focused on during the first three months of learning to trade.  John Carter’s Squeeze Study offers potential insight ahead of a major price move.  This information can help to determine my course of action.  The Fibonacci Retracements are an invaluable tool to help me determine where we can find support and resistance in a price.  The third study is the Moving Average Exponential Ribbon, a favorite of Trader_Joe at http://investorsHELP.net.   These ribbons are another way to look at support and resistance. 

As new traders, we have to spend much time learning and practicing what we’ve learned.  I’ve utilized all these studies with live data in paper trading at www.ameritrade.com .  You can open an account free of charge and begin learning and practicing before you to the knowledge to work on the live trading! 

Hope you learn to “track” exceptionally well.

Novice_Trader_Cindy


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Best Stocks As Of January 9, 2015

1/11/2015

4 Comments

 
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Want a listing of the Top 50 stocks as of 1.9.2015 for your study and analysis?  Would you like to know what stocks are in the Top 20 Industrial Groups?  I always like to analyze stocks that have earnings per share (EPS) that are in the Top 10% but currently do NOT have market support.  These stocks are good candidates for "turn around situations" ready to move up when they come back into favor.

These and several additional reports are now available at Peeks Stock Forum and have been updated as of market close on 1.9.2015.  A total of 9 reports have been updated and placed into the InvestorsHELP.net Subscriber's Vault.  Access is FREE but you do need to know the password to enter our vault.

Please check out the details for access and sign up at this location:  [GIVE ME ACCESS]

Good luck in picking the best stock for maximum appreciation,
Trader_Joe


4 Comments

How To Spot A Market Top In 2015?

1/8/2015

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Do you think we are at a market top, right now in January 2015?  Would you like some help on spotting market tops based on many years of experience?  Do you fear that a market top happened in December 2014?  If so, the answers are here based on more than 30 years in the financial markets.  [CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO]

Many FREE resources are available for traders and investors here at our website:  InvestorsHELP.net.



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Trading Options For Profits Meeting

1/8/2015

4 Comments

 
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Hi fellow traders and investors.  Here's and excellent options club in Silicon Valley that I joined many years ago.  If you want to learn about options, this is the place to go.  Below are all of the details for our next meeting.  Hope to see you there

T
rading Options for ProfitS


MEETING ANNOUNCEMENT 

Next Meeting:

Saturday, Jan 10, 2015 from 1:00 - 4:00pm


Where:


Elks Lodge
375 North Pastoria Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94085

Click Here for a map

Cover Charge $10

Topic:

2014, a year in review,
2015 a year in preview?

"Trades that worked; mostly"

RSVP:  [email protected]

The holidays are over:  out with the old; in with the new!

My MACD says BUY!

My RSI says SELL!

I've not even looked at price yet.

I'm in indicator hell!!

“It is different this time!”  Really?  The market is at all-time highs, and the VIX is at historic lows.  Interest rates that we may never see again.  Oil with a 5 SD move from their highs. 

How can we consistently make money in the market with everything that is going on now?  Well, some of us are doing just that!

To kick off the 2015 season of Traders Helping Traders while Trading Options for ProfitS, we will review some actionable trades based upon systems used in 2014 by PJ and Kurt -- and anyone else who wants to share what’s working for them.

Methods we will share:

1)     Earnings Season /Earnings Trades:  Using Options to determine the move of the stock.  How can we leverage the increased IV during earnings’ season to sell premium or to trade directionally?

2)     How can you use Sector Analysis to see where the market is trending?

3)     How can you use the historical data to put on seasonal trades with a VERY high probability of profit and really BIG returns?  HOST Trades - Jake Bernstein will be proud of you!

4)     Jake’s Momentum Divergence has been making me consistent profits!

5)     Bread and butter Monthly SPX trades

6)     Bread and butter Monthly Options on Crude Oil Futures

7)     Remember our Market Pulse question of where the SP500 will be 1 year from now?  What about one simple 12-month $5 vertical spread on a SPY option trade in 2014 that returned 65%?  Could we repeat this in 2015?  Let’s see if we can duplicate this return using current option prices and volatility. 

8)     And, don’t forget about the year 5 trade!

If anyone wishes to share any of their 2014 trade results or 2015 systems, please feel free to bring in your notes to share.  The power of our group is that we can use Crowd sourcing to review your ideas -- in order to help refine them and in order to try and give you the best chance of success.

Our meeting room has Wi-Fi.  Don’t be shy with questions.  We can analyze ideas in real time with the tools that we all are using.

If you wish to attend this meeting, please RSVP to: [email protected]

Best regards,
PJ

TOPS is a self-funded group of "traders helping traders," and a $10 contribution is required to pay expenses for the meeting. 

Disclaimer:  Trading is highly speculative and risky.  By registering for this event, you agree to receive future updates of educational events from TOPS (Trading Options for ProfitS).  If you do not wish to receive meeting notices, please reply to:  [email protected] with “remove” as the subject. 

TOPS is NOT an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities you should buy or sell.  Speakers may present trading ideas that have worked for them; but, the TOPS group does not endorse any specific trades or methodologies.  There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading.  You may lose some or all of your money.  Before using information obtained at our meetings you should carefully consider the risks and suitability for your own trading.


4 Comments

Novice Trader Produces 5 Videos

1/6/2015

1 Comment

 
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In September 2014, Cindy Bayne, daughter of Joe Gruender Jr., began her journey to become a successful trader and investor in the financial markets.  Under the mentorship of Joe, founder of InvestorsHELP.net, Cindy began her study on subjects that are of interest to new traders and investors, basically those who know little or nothing about the financial markets.  When you are new to any career field, you need to build a foundation of knowledge coupled with experience before you can become most successful in your chosen career field.  That's the concept we are going to follow here.

Cindy has begun her focus on general, yet important subjects, that she must learn and understand before she progresses to the next level.  Our more experienced traders and investors know this, or should know this, but like me, may have forgotten some details through the years.  I personally have learned a few new things from Cindy's videos. So, I continue to view her work and look forward to learning more from her videos in 2015.

Early in 2015, our focus will shift to Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  By using only ETFs for indexes and sectors, it offers a low stress and relatively less complex environment to learn about the financial markets.  More about this later since we need to work more on building our foundation.


Now that Cindy has posted several blogs and has produced 5 videos, please feel free to review and learn from her excellent work as she herself learns about the stock market, brokerage accounts, thinkorswim, and more.  Check back often as Cindy, and perhaps you, progress on the path to becoming a successful trader and investor.

Learn, profit and enjoy,                                  [MEET NOVICE_TRADER_CINDY]
Trader_Joe

1 Comment

ThinkorSwim Coming To Silicon Valley

1/6/2015

0 Comments

 
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Wonderful News For Traders and Investors!

I just received notice that Cindy Faber from thinkorswim will be here with us in Northern CA on Thursday.  I met Cindy almost two years ago and can attest that she is one of the most knowledgeable people on using our favorite trading platform.  You won't want to miss this meeting....bring your questions for Cindy.  When you see me at this meeting, please introduce yourself, I like to meet all of our FREE subscribers who like to use many of the resources available here at InvestorsHELP.net.

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0 Comments

Meetings For Investors and Traders

1/3/2015

0 Comments

 
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Happy New Year!

For traders and investors, we are already getting off on the right foot, especially if you live in the Bay Area of Northern California.  So far this month there are at least 8 meetings scheduled this month on a variety of investing and trading subjects including taxes and options.

I expect to add at least 3 additional meeting notices during the coming week or 10 days.  So, please check back often so that you too can take advantage of the information and education being offered during January. 

If you know of additional meetings that are scheduled that are not included at our website, please send an email to me at [[email protected]].


Current information, details, times and places for each of these meetings are located here:  [JANUARY MEETINGS].  I look forward to seeing and meeting many of our subcribers at these meetings in January.  If you see me, please introduce yourself.

Let's make January a very profitable month,
Trader_Joe Gruender



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